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Presidential Election 2020

August 2, 2020

Three months to go until the election. It can still go either way. The swing states necessary to win can still be won by either party. Democrats have a slight lead in Wisconsin. That state will have to be turned around for the Republicans to win. I believe all of the other must win states are within the margin if error and could go either way. Some states may depend on who the Democrats Vice President candidate is. The running mate can win or lose a few states and that could make the difference in a tight race. Since we have the electoral college the national polls and popular vote do not mean anything. The individual state polls and polls have to be considered and the electoral votes counted to make any kind of meaningful prediction about the final outcome. At the Constitutional Convention the small states demanded influence do they would not be dominated completely by the large states of Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania. The large states gave in to them and we still live with the results. I think the large states should have stood their ground and demanded a popular vote for president (and a senate based on population) but they did not.

I don’t think it is possible at this time to predict who will win. Popular opinion and polls in individual states can change quickly and often.  Most incumbents have been reelected, but not always. Jimmy Carter and George Bush the first come to mind as examples. That tells me the most likely outcome is a Republican win in another close election with the winner not getting the most popular votes. For that, you can blame the founding fathers from the large states who caved to the smaller states when they should not have. Only a constitutional amendment can change that now.

From → Observation, Thoughts

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