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Health Care

July 5, 2012

It has been interesting to follow the debates on health care and the Affordable Health Care Act.   Positions are changing back and forth.  There are arguments over whether the money paid to the IRS by those that don’t have insurance is a penalty or a tax.   It was passed as a penalty.  The Surpreme Court held it was a tax.   Either way, it’s money paid to the IRS.

The way I look at it, the way this will play out is as follows.   The president, I believe will be re-elected.   The republicians will still control the House and may have a one vote majority in the Senate.  Not enough to repeal the Act.

As for the results, a few more people will buy insurance but not many.  Most of the people that don’t have insurance either don’t want it or can’t afford it.   Those that don’t want it will pay the tax/penalty.  Those that can’t afford won’t buy it because they can;t.  The IRS will collect the tax/penalty/money from some of them and tax revenues will go up.

More companies will drop health coverage and opt to pay the IRS the money.   They will do that because it is less expensive for them.   The employees will buy individual polices on the exchanges, if they can afford to, and if they rather do that then pay the money to the IRS and spend or invest the difference.

Since insurance companies have to insure without regard to pre-existing conditions, many people will wait until they are sick to buy insurance.   Insurance companies will have more expenses compared to revenues and will raise premiums and at the same time reduce coverage.

People will complain they can’t afford the increased premiums and the coverage is not good.

The solution will be universal health care.  Probably by the expansion of Medicare and Medicaid to cover everyone.

That’s the way I see it from here.

From → Observation

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